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The first money has names attached. At India's Semicon in New Delhi, Narendra Modi has launched the investor charm offensive, and Bloomberg reports the pitch has already drawn investment pledges worth billions from Applied Materials and Lam Research. Neither is a fringe player: the two firms are among the world's largest suppliers of chipmaking equipment, the deposition and etch tools without which no fab on earth gets built.

Equipment money is the signal worth weighing. A promised fab can stall in committee for a decade; an equipment maker pledging billions is wagering that production lines will actually exist, because its tools only earn their keep once wafers move. When the picks-and-shovels layer starts committing capital, it is usually because it expects digging.

The caution is the ordinary one: a pledge is a promise, not a cleanroom. What turns these billions into buildings is timing, conditions and follow-through, none of which an opening day settles. But the test this conference faced was whether investors would write cheques or compliments, and two of the industry's biggest equipment makers have now put numbers on the table. Who signs next decides whether India's chip week becomes India's chip decade.

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