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The numbers have arrived. Speaking at SEMICON India 2026, Wayne Allan, ASML's chief strategic sourcing and procurement officer, said AI is likely to push the global semiconductor industry to at least $1.6 trillion by 2030, and put India's own chip market at $110-120 billion by the same year. Forecasts rather than filings, but they give India's fab ambitions a size to argue about.

The roadmap behind them is specific. Allan told BusinessLine that India will need several fabs to hit its targets, with domestic production covering 15-25% of the country's semiconductor demand by 2032 and 35-50% by 2035, the latter potentially requiring a dozen fabs or more. The Tata Electronics fab at Dholera, expected to be operational by 2028, is the first of them, and ASML's immediate priority is helping it qualify production and hold its quality, yield and schedule marks.

The work starts mainstream. Per Allan, India's manufacturing push will initially lean on established nodes rather than the cutting edge, with substantial innovation still to be had at 28nm and above in analogue chips, mainstream logic, power, sensors, NAND and advanced packaging. Less glamorous than the frontier-node race, and considerably larger.

One line deserves underlining.

Sources and evidence

• ASML to expand India presence as Tata Electronics fab takes shape – BusinessLine: ASML executive Wayne Allan said AI demand should push the global semiconductor industry to at least $1.6 trillion by 2030 and India's chip market to $110-120 billion, with India needing potentially a dozen or more fabs to meet domestic production targets of 15-25% of demand by 2032 and 35-50% by 2035, while ASML has no current plans to manufacture in India itself.

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