AI investment is booming, but the productivity data cited by Yahoo Finance does not yet show a clear lift in the US economy’s total factor productivity. That measure is slightly below zero, according to Apollo chief economist Torsten Sløk’s analysis, while the more upbeat output-per-hour figure may have another explanation: companies investing in more equipment.
Watch Desk analysis
What happened
Yahoo Finance’s 6 October article contrasts two measures of productivity. Output per hour is running 2.5% above its post-2005 average, a figure sometimes offered as evidence that AI is already improving efficiency. But output per hour can rise when workers simply have more capital to work with, such as better equipment.
Total factor productivity, or TFP, attempts to account for both labour and capital. Sløk’s analysis puts it slightly below zero, with no sign of acceleration since the AI investment boom began. That does not prove AI has had no effect: the article notes that earlier technologies such as electricity and IT took years to show up in economy-wide measures.
Why it matters
A productivity gain is a central promise of AI, but spending on technology is not the same thing as evidence that organisations are producing more efficiently. If companies are buying more equipment, output per hour can rise without showing that AI has changed how work gets done.
TFP is not a perfect scoreboard, and a flat reading cannot settle what is happening inside individual firms. Still, it gives readers a useful way to separate visible investment and output from the harder question of whether AI is delivering economy-wide efficiency gains.
Our read
The honest verdict is “not yet measured clearly”, rather than “AI has failed” or “the productivity boom is here”. That may be less exciting than a chart with a dramatic upward swoosh, but it is a sturdier place to start. Treat claims of an economy-wide AI payoff as forecasts until the productivity data catches up.
What to watch
- Whether US TFP begins to accelerate as AI adoption spreads.
- Whether output-per-hour growth continues, and how much comes from additional investment.
- Whether future analyses can distinguish AI’s contribution from other changes in technology and working practices.
Discussion spark: Should businesses and investors wait for economy-wide productivity gains before calling AI a success, or are firm-level benefits enough?
Sources and evidence
- AI is everywhere, except in productivity data – Yahoo Finance (6 October 2026, 10:00 UTC)
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