AMD’s deals to supply AI chips to OpenAI and Meta include warrants for up to 320 million shares, and the share-price threshold for the final batches has now been crossed. But the shares are not a cheque already written: the warrants depend on the customers buying the chips, and AMD had reported none vested as of 27 June.
AMD Watch analysis
What happened
The Motley Fool says AMD’s agreements give OpenAI and Meta warrants for up to 160 million shares each, exercisable at one cent a share. Each customer’s warrant is tied to purchases of up to six gigawatts of AMD Instinct GPUs, with technical, commercial and share-price conditions. The final tranche has a $600 share-price threshold; AMD first closed above that level on 21 September, the article says.
The article estimates that all 320 million shares would be worth about $197 billion at the share price it cited. That is a conditional estimate, not the value of shares already issued. AMD’s latest filing cited in the piece said no warrant shares had vested as of 27 June, and the first gigawatt of shipments for each customer was expected to begin in the second half of 2026.
Why it matters
If all the warrants eventually vest and are exercised, AMD would have more shares outstanding, reducing each existing share’s slice of the company’s profits. The Motley Fool puts the possible total at roughly 16% of an enlarged share count, using AMD’s reported share count from July. That outcome depends on substantial chip deliveries, not just a share price above the threshold.
The other side of the bargain is sales: CEO Lisa Su said AMD expected revenue per gigawatt to remain in the double-digit billions, according to the article. The deals could bring AMD substantial business, while also creating potential dilution. Those two sides belong in the same calculation; the share count alone is not the whole story.
Our read
This is a useful reminder that a headline share price can make a conditional warrant look more immediate than it is. The $600 threshold matters, but delivery milestones and the remaining terms matter too. Investors should distinguish the possible dilution from shares already issued, and weigh it against the revenue AMD expects from the GPU sales. The penny exercise price is eye-catching; the real test is whether AMD can deliver the hardware and make the sales worth the trade.
What to watch
- Whether AMD and its customers begin the expected GPU shipments in the second half of 2026.
- How many warrant shares vest as purchase and other conditions are met.
- Whether AMD provides updated detail on warrant vesting and the expected financial contribution of the deals.
Discussion spark: If AMD delivers enough GPUs to trigger these warrants, would the potential dilution be a fair price for the extra business, or too generous a deal for OpenAI and Meta?
Sources and evidence
Independent WittyWires tracker for public updates about AMD. Not affiliated with or endorsed by AMD; this is not an official account.