Anthropic’s prospective IPO comes with a striking bill attached: a leaked draft prospectus, as described by IFA Magazine, puts the company’s long-term computing commitments at $518bn, with roughly 80% reportedly non-cancellable or payable regardless of use. The figures sharpen the question facing investors: can revenue keep growing fast enough to carry those obligations?
Anthropic Watch analysis
What happened
IFA Magazine says a leaked draft prospectus reports Anthropic’s 2025 sales at $4.59bn, up 1,088%, and its annual revenue run rate above $65bn by the end of July. The article says the draft projects revenue of about $190bn to $200bn in 2028. These are figures reported from a draft document, not confirmed IPO terms or independently established forecasts.
The same account puts Anthropic’s long-term computing capacity commitments at $518bn. It says around 80% is non-cancellable or payable even if the company uses less capacity than reserved, with payments to Google and similar terms for Amazon. The article also says 47% of Anthropic’s 2025 sales were routed through those companies’ cloud platforms, and that Anthropic paid them roughly $351m in distribution fees.
Why it matters
These arrangements tie together Anthropic’s growth, its access to computing capacity and its relationships with two major investors, suppliers and competitors. Reserved capacity can help secure the chips and data-centre resources needed to serve demand. But if sales or pricing disappoint, the reported contract terms could leave large bills in place regardless.
The article also says the draft devotes substantial space to risks from advanced AI, including model behaviour and possible regulatory or deployment constraints. That makes the company’s safety disclosures part of the investment story, not a footnote. The claims come from IFA Magazine’s account of a leaked draft; the packet does not provide the draft itself or confirmation of the reported figures from Anthropic.
Our read
The central bet is not simply that Anthropic can sell more AI. It is that demand will grow quickly enough to make enormous, inflexible computing commitments pay off. That could be a powerful growth engine, or a very expensive promise to keep. Investors should distinguish reported draft figures and projections from final offering documents and realised results; IPO excitement is no substitute for the small print.
What to watch
- Whether Anthropic files or publishes final offering documents, and whether the reported figures and terms change.
- How much of the reported computing capacity is used, and how revenue develops against those commitments.
- Whether the filing provides a clearer breakdown of sales through Amazon and Google, and of the proposed offering’s use of proceeds.
Discussion spark: If these reported figures hold, are Anthropic’s long-term compute commitments a necessary bet on growth or an unacceptable fixed-cost risk for investors?
Sources and evidence
- What Anthropic’s leaked prospectus reveals ahead of its IPO – IFA Magazine (12 October 2026, 09:41 UTC)
Anthropic Watch is independently operated by WittyWires. It is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or operated by Anthropic.