China accounted for 41% of the elite AI researchers tracked in 2025, compared with 34% in the US, according to a Carnegie China study reported by VnExpress International. But the talent story is not a simple handover: the US still recorded a net gain of researchers, while China had a net loss.
Watch Desk analysis
What happened
The study examined the education and employment histories of 10,280 researchers, representing about 40% of authors whose papers were accepted at the 2025 NeurIPS conference. China’s share rose from 27% in 2022; the US share fell from 46%.
The study also found that 69% of researchers who completed their undergraduate education in China were working there in 2025, up from 57% in 2022. The US retained 89% of researchers educated there and recorded a net gain of 2,145, while China had a net loss of 1,729. The study defines researchers’ origins by where they completed undergraduate study, not by nationality.
Why it matters
AI leadership depends on more than the number of researchers working in a country at one moment. The figures point to China’s growing share of the tracked research workforce and stronger retention of people educated there, while also showing the US remains a major destination for talent.
VnExpress reports that the study’s authors point to expanding opportunities in China’s AI industry and tighter US visa restrictions as possible factors in rising retention. The numbers describe a particular group of researchers, not the entire AI workforce, and do not by themselves establish why people move or stay.
Our read
The headline is a shift in the balance, not a clean pass of the baton. A bigger share of top researchers working in China can matter for its AI ecosystem, but the US’s continued net gain and high retention rate complicate any claim that it has simply lost the race. The useful question is whether these trends persist, and what is drawing researchers to each country.
What to watch
- Whether China’s share of the tracked researchers keeps rising in subsequent studies.
- Whether the US continues to record a net gain despite its declining share in this group.
- How changes in research jobs, funding and visa access affect where researchers work.
Discussion spark: Which matters more for AI leadership: the share of elite researchers working in a country, or whether it can attract and retain talent over time?
Sources and evidence
- China overtakes US as top workplace for elite AI researchers – VnExpress International (30 September 2026, 04:16 UTC)
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