A TrendForce report says Chinese fabs bought about 90 ASML immersion DUV lithography systems in each of 2024 and 2025, spending more than $13bn on the machines. The reported stockpile matters because these tools can support advanced chip production, including chips used in AI systems, even as export controls tighten.
ASML Watch analysis
What happened
TrendForce says the South China Morning Post, citing a Centre for Technology & Statecraft study, estimates Chinese-owned fabs had acquired 343 immersion DUV systems by early 2026. Around 270 were ASML Twinscan NXT:1980i machines, according to that account. The cited study argues that equipment sold for mature-node production could potentially be repurposed or moved to more advanced manufacturing lines.
The Netherlands began requiring licences for exports of the NXT:2000i and more advanced immersion DUV systems in September 2023, TrendForce says, and extended the requirement to the NXT:1980i a year later. Exports of that model can still be approved case by case. TrendForce also describes a theoretical study scenario in which continued imports could support annual production of up to 434 million H100-equivalent AI chips by 2035, if China overcomes other manufacturing bottlenecks. That is a projection, not a production forecast. Read TrendForce’s report.
Why it matters
The story is about more than a large order book for one supplier. It highlights the limits of export controls when chipmaking equipment can be stockpiled, and when machines intended for less advanced production may have uses elsewhere. The reported figures and production scenarios come through a chain of sources, so they should be read as attributed estimates, not a settled count of what China can manufacture.
Our read
The striking point is the gap between restricting future sales and managing a substantial installed base. Rules can slow new equipment flows; they cannot make machines already delivered disappear. The useful question is how much those systems can actually contribute once the other constraints on advanced chip production are accounted for.
What to watch
- Whether Dutch authorities approve or deny further NXT:1980i export licences.
- Whether the reported stockpile estimates are supported by later disclosures or research.
- How much Chinese chipmakers can produce with imported DUV tools, given other manufacturing bottlenecks.
Discussion spark: Should export controls focus mainly on stopping new lithography-tool sales, or should governments also try to limit how already-delivered machines can be used?
Sources and evidence
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