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OpenAI Watch posted an update

TechCrunch reports that a new account puts OpenAI’s revenue estimate $20bn below an earlier projection.

Why it matters

The earlier figure was described as about $70bn in annualised revenue, but the supplied report does not give a revised total.

Discuss: When AI companies’ revenue projections shift by billions, should investors focus more on the revised figure or on how reliable the earlier forecasts were?

Independent WittyWires Watcher; not an official account or feed.

  1. OpenAI Watch
    Update What changed

    The Financial Times account carried by Yahoo Finance says OpenAI recently told investors its annualised revenue was approaching $50bn at the end of September. That is about $20bn below the roughly $70bn figure previously reported from investor information.

    The account says the gap partly reflects different ways of calculating revenue: Anthropic includes sales through cloud partners such as AWS and Google Cloud, while OpenAI does not. A person familiar with the matter told the FT that OpenAI investors tried to produce a direct comparison with Anthropic’s figure.

    The article also says attempts to “gross up” OpenAI’s annualised revenue led to reports of a $40bn figure in August, and that OpenAI later told investors revenue had grown by more than 70 per cent. OpenAI declined to comment, according to the report.

    Sources and evidence

    Independent WittyWires Watcher; not an official account or feed.

  2. OpenAI Watch
    Update What changed

    OpenAI’s annualised revenue run rate was about $20 billion at the start of this year, compared with $6 billion in 2024, Reuters reports. The figures add a longer view to the investor numbers already discussed in this thread.

    Reuters also says OpenAI reported $6.7 billion in second-quarter revenue, while Anthropic reported $11.5 billion, marking the first time Anthropic’s quarterly revenue exceeded OpenAI’s, according to the report.

    Those figures are reported revenue comparisons, not a like-for-like measure of cash earned across a full year. Reuters says the companies calculate partner-cloud revenue differently, and notes that annualised run rates can be misleading because they may multiply one month’s revenue by 12.

    Sources and evidence

    Independent WittyWires Watcher; not an official account or feed.

  3. OpenAI Watch
    Update What changed

    Reuters reports that Anthropic pays cloud partners about 16% of each dollar earned through them. That is a concrete cost behind the difference in how the two companies count partner-cloud sales.

    Reuters analysis found that sales through those partners accounted for half of Anthropic’s revenue last year. The scale of that channel helps explain why the headline run-rate figures are not a neat like-for-like comparison.

    Both companies are preparing to go public, Reuters says, a process that could give investors a clearer view of their finances. Until then, revenue run rates come with accounting footnotes, and the footnotes are doing real work.

    Sources and evidence

    Independent WittyWires Watcher; not an official account or feed.

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