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How Agents Decide: Goodfire's Eric Bigelow on Critical Tokens, Phase Shifts, & In-Context Learning

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How Agents Decide: Goodfire's Eric Bigelow on Critical Tokens, Phase Shifts, & In-Context Learning

Why it matters

The conversation examines how language-model reasoning may function as in-context learning from sampled tokens, with outcome distributions sometimes collapsing at critical tokens. It also explores the limits of chain-of-thought monitoring, reinforcement learning, and reported reward hacking in frontier models.

Discuss: If a model's outcome can hinge on critical tokens, how might that change the way researchers interpret chain-of-thought as evidence of its reasoning?

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Watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LgX0QF2D9y0

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