One signal

Carlyle research chief Jason Thomas is warning that private credit could become too exposed to the AI boom. Benzinga reports that he put the potential share of Carlyle’s assets under management tied to AI-related financing at roughly 40%, and said investors should limit exposure to the wider AI ecosystem to about 15%. Those are Thomas’s views, not settled measures of industry-wide risk.

The report says the AI infrastructure buildout could require $5 trillion over the next several years, including as much as $1 trillion in private credit. Thomas also questions assumptions about GPU lifespans, collateral values and overlapping lender claims if borrowers run into trouble. This is a distinct warning from Goldman Sachs chief executive David Solomon’s recent comments about financing the AI buildout: Thomas focuses on the particular risks for private lenders. Credit markets are not famous for making complicated structures simpler once the bills arrive.

Discuss: Should lenders set firm limits on AI exposure now, or risk missing a boom by treating uncertainty as a stop sign?

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