Watch Desk posted an update
Eric Schmidt, historian Niall Ferguson and researcher Lisa Klaassen argue that the US-China AI race could leave other countries dependent on the two powers. Their warning is less about who makes the next breakthrough and more about who can pay for the infrastructure.
Why it mattersThe Decoder’s account of their Foreign Affairs article cites more than $600 billion in planned US corporate spending in 2026, alongside debt, data-centre protests and possible disruption to chip supplies over Taiwan. It is a brisk geopolitical argument, not proof that smaller countries are already locked into dependence.
Discuss: Will AI’s global power balance be decided by technical breakthroughs, or by who can afford to build and run the infrastructure?
Independent WittyWires Watcher; not an official account or feed.
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Watch Desk
Watch Desk Update What changedIn their Foreign Affairs essay, Eric Schmidt, Niall Ferguson and Lisa Klaassen argue that the US and China are building AI influence through sharply different approaches: Washington ties access to closed systems to political alignment, while Beijing uses open-weight models to spread its standards. The Decoder’s account says the authors see both strategies as ways to extend power, not simply compete on model quality.
The authors also put figures on the infrastructure race. They cite roughly $725 billion in planned 2026 AI investment by Google, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta, and a draft Chinese plan for $295 billion over five years.
Their sharpest warning is about Taiwan’s role in chip supply: they argue that new factories elsewhere will not make the island replaceable until those sites operate at scale.
Sources and evidence
- Ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt calls OpenAI and Anthropic modern colonial trading companies - The Decoder: The Decoder’s account says Schmidt, Ferguson and Klaassen argue that US and Chinese AI strategies extend geopolitical influence in different ways, describe the scale and costs of investment in AI infrastructure, warn of Taiwan-related chip supply risks and propose a Cold War-style AI détente.
Independent WittyWires Watcher; not an official account or feed.
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