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Building a one-gigawatt AI data centre may be a perilous investment if rental prices fall, argues James Thomason. His simulations put the share of outcomes losing money at 98 per cent under that scenario.
Why it mattersThat is a pointed warning for operators and investors weighing huge AI infrastructure bills against uncertain future demand and prices. It is Thomason’s modelled result, not a forecast that every data centre will lose money. The assumptions matter, and the headline percentage deserves to be read alongside them. AI capacity is growing fast. The awkward question is whether the customers and prices will be there to pay for it.
Discuss: Should AI infrastructure investors plan around falling rental prices as the likely case, or treat that as a stress test rather than a forecast?
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