One signal

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes argues that large share unlocks after major AI-company listings could weigh on technology stocks, tighten credit and put pressure on Bitcoin. He estimates that early Anthropic investors could face 83% dilution by June 2027, a forecast based on his reading of expected share supply, not a stated new share issue by Anthropic.

Hayes’s argument is that selling by existing shareholders could make investors more wary of AI companies and raise their borrowing costs as they fund costly computing infrastructure. He also expects any resulting financial crisis could eventually prompt central-bank support, which he thinks might help Bitcoin. That is a chain of predictions, not an established outcome, but it connects AI firms’ financing needs to a wider market risk.

Discuss: Should investors treat post-IPO share unlocks as a serious risk to AI companies’ ability to fund computing, or is Hayes’s forecast too speculative to carry much weight?

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