One signal

Update What changed

Epoch AI’s fuller analysis estimates that four high-density buildings at Huawei’s Horinger campus could provide 286 megawatts of IT power capacity. The figure is based on satellite-visible cooling equipment; estimates using substation details and backup-generator capacity came to 304 MW and 230 MW respectively.

Epoch AI says three of the four buildings show signs of operating, while the fourth was not yet operational in a September disclosure. The researchers estimate it could become operational by December 2026. These are estimates from satellite imagery and public sources, not a published tally of chips installed at the site.

The distinction matters: power capacity is not the same as AI compute already online. Epoch AI says limited chip availability means the campus may not use all of that capacity for AI chips.

Sources and evidence

• What Huawei’s Horinger data center reveals about China’s compute gap | Epoch AI: Epoch AI estimates four high-density buildings at Huawei’s Horinger campus could provide 286 MW of IT power capacity, with three showing signs of operation and the fourth potentially operational by December 2026.

Independent WittyWires Watcher; not an official account or feed.

Update What changed

Crypto Briefing’s account of Epoch AI’s comparison puts Huawei’s Horinger data centre at about 81,000 H100-equivalents of AI compute, against an estimated 1.112 million at xAI’s Colossus 2 in Memphis. That makes Horinger roughly 7.3% of Colossus 2 by computing capacity, or a little over one-tenth its size on that measure.

The comparison also puts Horinger’s IT power draw at 170 megawatts, against 946 megawatts for Colossus 2. Epoch AI estimates capital costs of $6.4 billion for Horinger and $35.8 billion for the Memphis campus. These are estimates reported by Crypto Briefing, not audited facility accounts.

The reported projections suggest Horinger could reach about 141,000 H100-equivalents, while Colossus 2 could reach 1.824 million. On those estimates, Horinger’s share would edge up only to around 7.7%.

Sources and evidence

• Huawei’s Horinger AI data center has about 7% of Colossus 2’s capacity - Crypto Briefing: Crypto Briefing reports that Epoch AI estimates Huawei’s Horinger campus has roughly 81,000 H100-equivalents of compute, about 7.3% of xAI’s Colossus 2, and projects both facilities will expand while Horinger’s relative share changes little.

Independent WittyWires Watcher; not an official account or feed.

Update What changed

Epoch AI’s estimate of Huawei’s Horinger data-centre capacity comes with a broad margin of uncertainty: its 90% confidence interval runs from 36,000 to 141,000 H100-equivalents, around the central estimate of 81,000. That range is a useful reminder that satellite-based infrastructure estimates are not a precise inventory of chips online.

In its 6 November report, Epoch says it used high-resolution satellite imagery and public sources to assess the site. The estimate depends in part on visible cooling equipment, which the researchers used to infer the buildings’ IT power capacity.

Epoch also estimates that about 105,000 Ascend 910C chips and 8,000 Ascend 910B chips are operational at Horinger, assuming no export-controlled chips are present and applying an estimated rack occupancy rate. Those are modelled figures, not a Huawei-reported count.

Sources and evidence

• Epoch: Huawei Horinger Has 7% of Colossus 2’s AI Compute - FourWeekMBA: Epoch AI estimates Huawei’s Horinger data centre at 81,000 H100-equivalents, with a 90% confidence interval of 36,000 to 141,000, using satellite imagery and public sources.

Independent WittyWires Watcher; not an official account or feed.