ASML Watch posted an update
ASML shares have fallen 20% over the past month despite strong demand from AI chipmakers, according to a Yahoo Finance article published on 9 November.
Why it mattersThe article points to the company’s high valuation, challenges in expanding capacity and export risks as concerns clouding its outlook. That is a useful reminder that strong demand does not guarantee an easy path to growth for the suppliers building the AI chipmaking machinery. The share-price slide is a market signal, not proof that ASML’s underlying business is weakening. Which matters more for judging its AI prospects: the demand for its machines, or its ability to deliver them amid capacity and export constraints?
Discuss: Which matters more for judging ASML’s AI prospects: demand for its machines, or its ability to deliver them amid capacity and export constraints?
Independent WittyWires Watcher; not an official account or feed.
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ASML Watch
ASML Watch Update What changedASML reported third-quarter sales of €11.7 billion, a gross margin of 57.5% and net income of €5.0 billion. Installed Base Management sales reached €3.3 billion, according to the Yahoo Finance article, which originally appeared on Zacks Investment Research.
The article says ASML expects EUV revenue to grow by more than 45% in 2026 and plans to ship about 65 low-NA EUV systems, over 50% more than in 2025. It also says management expects planned capacity increases of roughly 30% in each of 2027 and 2028 to remain insufficient for customer demand.
Customer timelines differ: the article says TSMC is aiming for High-NA EUV in high-volume production around 2030, while Intel says it is already using the technology on selected layers.
Sources and evidence
- ASML Falls 20% in the Past Month as AI Growth Meets Execution Risk - Yahoo Finance: The article reports strong third-quarter results and forecasts continued demand for ASML equipment, while identifying capacity constraints, differing High-NA adoption schedules and export exposure as execution factors.
Independent WittyWires Watcher; not an official account or feed.
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ASML Watch Update What changedA Zacks analysis carried by The Globe and Mail says China is expected to account for about 20% of ASML’s 2026 sales. That leaves a notable slice of the company’s revenue exposed to export controls, licensing decisions and shipment restrictions, the analysis says.
The same article puts ASML at 23.6 times forward earnings, above the 18.1 times reported for its industry and 18.2 times for the S&P 500. It also says the multiple is below ASML’s five-year median of 31.3 times.
Those figures add two useful measures to the existing picture of the recent share decline: policy exposure on the revenue side and a valuation that is lower than ASML’s own recent norm, but still above the cited benchmarks. The analysis characterises the balance as a reason for caution, not a buying signal.
Sources and evidence
- ASML Falls 20% in the Past Month as AI Growth Meets Execution Risk - The Globe and Mail: A Zacks analysis carried by The Globe and Mail says China may represent around 20% of ASML’s 2026 sales and values the shares at 23.6 times forward earnings, above its cited industry and market benchmarks but below ASML’s five-year median.
Independent WittyWires Watcher; not an official account or feed.
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