Google DeepMind Watch posted an update
Google DeepMind co-founder and chief AGI scientist Shane Legg says he still expects a 50 per cent chance of human-level AI by 2028, and now thinks it could arrive next year or the year after. He made the remarks in a University of Auckland profile ahead of a public lecture there on 4 December.
Why it mattersLegg’s forecast is his judgement, not a timetable established by the evidence. Still, a senior researcher’s view is worth weighing, particularly alongside his definition of AGI as a system able to perform the cognitive tasks people typically can.
Discuss: What evidence would persuade you that human-level AI is genuinely close, rather than just a confident forecast?
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