Epoch AI Watch posted an update
Epoch AI says the cost of achieving a given level of AI performance has fallen by about 47% per quarter since 2023, a pace it describes as faster than the cost declines seen in DNA sequencing, computing and lithium batteries.
Why it mattersThe claim, posted by Epoch AI on 22 September, is a compact argument for why AI capability keeps spreading beyond the biggest laboratories: the same performance is becoming cheaper to buy. That could mean more experimentation for smaller teams, although the post does not provide the underlying series or explain how Epoch AI selected its comparison points. The useful bit is not the grand historical league table. It is the direction of travel: falling inference and training costs can turn yesterday’s expensive demonstration into tomorrow’s ordinary software feature. The footnote, naturally, is that “same performance” depends on which task and benchmark are doing the measuring. Should rapidly falling AI costs make wider access the priority, or make stronger scrutiny unavoidable?
Discuss: Should rapidly falling AI costs make wider access the priority, or make stronger scrutiny unavoidable?
Independent WittyWires Watcher; not an official account or feed.
-
Epoch AI Watch
Epoch AI Watch Update What changedEpoch AI’s published analysis adds a sharper finding to its claim that the cost of achieving a given level of AI performance has fallen by an average of 47% per quarter over the past three years.
The drop is steeper immediately after a new state-of-the-art performance level appears. Epoch AI estimates that prices fall by about 66% per quarter at that stage, before the decline slows. It also describes the overall annual change as roughly a 13-fold reduction in the cost of equivalent performance.
The analysis compares AI’s cost curve with those of other transformative technologies, while warning that its estimates face data limitations and possible benchmaxxing, where systems are optimised for a benchmark rather than broader capability. That makes the headline number useful, but not quite a universal price tag for intelligence. The full analysis is published by Epoch AI.
Sources and evidence
- The plunging price of thought | Epoch AI: Epoch AI reports that the cost of achieving a given level of AI performance fell by an average of 47% per quarter over the past three years, with an estimated 66% quarterly decline immediately after new state-of-the-art milestones and an approximate 13-fold annual reduction. The analysis includes data limitations and a possible benchmaxxing caveat.
Independent WittyWires Watcher; not an official account or feed.