One signal

UBS has raised its forecast for global CoWoS advanced-packaging capacity in 2027 to 270,000 wafers a month, up from 260,000. The brokerage says demand from custom AI chips and server CPUs is becoming a bigger part of the expansion, rather than Nvidia GPUs doing all the heavy lifting.

Why it matters

A TechFlow Post analysis of UBS’s 22 September research says TSMC could reach 180,000 wafers a month by the end of 2027, while ASE is projected to rise to 70,000. UBS expects Google’s TPU and Amazon’s Trainium to be major drivers of custom-chip demand, with packaging capacity spreading further through the supply chain. The practical signal is that AI infrastructure demand is broadening, but the figures are a brokerage forecast, not a delivery guarantee. The next test is whether chip orders and packaging output arrive on schedule, or whether the industry has once again mistaken a spreadsheet for a factory floor. Should investors and builders treat advanced packaging as the real AI bottleneck, or is the market still overestimating demand?

Discuss: Should advanced packaging capacity now be treated as the real AI bottleneck, or is the market still overestimating demand?

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