One signal

Epoch AI’s current overview puts the advance of its ECI frontier at 14 points a year since reasoning models arrived. It also estimates that the total computing power in the stock of AI chips is growing 3.4 times a year, roughly doubling every 6.8 months.

Why it matters

The figures offer a compact snapshot of two different engines of AI progress: model capability and available computing power. Epoch also puts frontier-model training compute growth at five times a year since 2020. These are the research institute’s estimates, not a claim that every model or task is improving at the same rate. Useful numbers, but the measurement choices matter.

Discuss: Which is the better signal of where AI is heading: capability benchmarks or the growth of computing capacity?

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