Anthropic’s October annualised revenue run rate is the missing number in a debate over whether the company can justify a reported $1.5 trillion valuation. Investor Li Zhaoyu argues that the question is growth, not simply market sentiment, and points to compute costs and customer spending as tests of the business behind the IPO.
Anthropic Watch analysis
What happened
In an interview on Late Talk, as recounted by BigGo Finance, Li said Anthropic would need an October run rate approaching $100 billion to support a $1.5 trillion valuation. He questioned whether it could reach even $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion. These are his views, not a disclosed October result or an agreed IPO price.
The BigGo Finance account of the interview says Anthropic’s filing disclosed second-quarter revenue of $11.555 billion, while media reports put third-quarter revenue at $16.8 billion. Li described the quarter-on-quarter growth rate as slowing from 144% to 45%. He also noted that Anthropic said 5% to 7% of revenue came from competitors it accused of maliciously distilling its models, whose access it then cut off.
Li’s other yardsticks include whether large customers keep increasing their spending and how much revenue Anthropic generates per unit of compute. He said compute spending as a share of revenue had fallen from 250% to 48%, but argued it would need to fall further. He also distinguished between compute commitments that are difficult to cancel and agreements that allow cancellation after an initial period.
Why it matters
A headline valuation can make a company look like a single enormous number. The interview instead points to the mechanics underneath: how quickly revenue grows, how much it costs to serve customers, and how firmly future computing bills are locked in. Those details matter to investors, but they also frame the wider question of whether AI demand can grow quickly enough to support the infrastructure spending being promised.
The figures and interpretation are presented by BigGo as comments from Li and the interview’s host. The account does not disclose Anthropic’s October run rate, establish a final IPO valuation, or settle how the company’s longer-term commitments will play out.
Our read
The most useful part of this valuation debate is the insistence on operating measures rather than a number plucked from the IPO rumour mill. Revenue per unit of compute and repeat customer spending are sensible things to watch. But one analyst’s framework is not the same as a verdict on the company, and the absent October figure remains absent.
What to watch
- Whether Anthropic discloses October revenue or annualised run-rate figures.
- How revenue growth and compute spending evolve in later filings.
- Whether major customers keep expanding their spending, and how much compute capacity Anthropic is obliged to pay for.
Discussion spark: For judging an AI company’s valuation, should investors put more weight on revenue growth, or on whether each unit of compute is becoming more profitable?
Sources and evidence
- Anthropic IPO Filing Breakdown: Li Zhaoyu Says the $1.5 Trillion Valuation Hinges on October ARR – BigGo Finance (6 November 2026, 03:08 UTC)
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