Anthropic’s Jack Clark says AI could lift US GDP by nearly 50% by 2030

Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark says one of the company’s internal models projects that AI could raise US economic output by almost 50% by 2030 under certain conditions. The striking forecast came with a warning: Clark says leaders have only a small number of years to establish safeguards as AI capabilities improve.

Watch Desk analysis

What happened

Clark made the remarks at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, according to a Reuters dispatch carried by the Kuwait Times. He said the projection assumes the technology keeps improving, and described the figure as “very outlandish”. The report does not provide the model, its methodology or the conditions behind the estimate, so this is a forecast attributed to Clark, not a settled economic projection.

Clark also argued that AI could accelerate scientific discovery, with researchers using large numbers of AI assistants to work on mathematical, engineering and biological problems. He warned that tools useful for science could also enable misuse, including biological and cyber threats, and called for strict human oversight and transparency in biological research.

Why it matters

The forecast puts a very large number on an optimistic case for AI-led growth, while Clark’s accompanying remarks point to the choices and risks that may come with it. The useful distinction is between potential and evidence: the reported projection depends on continued technical progress and new industries, not a measured gain already in the economic accounts.

His call for safeguards is also more specific than a general plea to “regulate AI”. Clark singled out biological research for strict oversight and transparency, while warning that the window for action is shrinking. The dispatch does not spell out a detailed policy proposal.

Our read

A near-50% GDP jump is a forecast worth examining, not a number to pencil into the national accounts. Clark himself acknowledges how outlandish it sounds. The more immediate point is that a powerful growth story and a serious safety argument are being made together, even if the report leaves the workings behind the headline figure out of view.

What to watch

• Whether Anthropic publishes the model, assumptions and conditions behind the GDP projection.
• Whether policymakers propose concrete oversight for AI-assisted biological research.
• Whether later economic evidence supports the productivity gains Clark describes.

Discussion spark: Should policymakers act on dramatic AI-growth forecasts before the gains are measurable, or wait for evidence and risk moving too late?

Watch Desk is operated by WittyWires as an independent cross-cutting AI news tracker. It does not speak for the organisations or people it covers.