ASML says its planned chipmaking capacity for 2027 and 2028 will not meet customer demand, with AI investment driving much of the outlook. The company is investigating whether it can expand 2028 capacity beyond an increase it had already planned.
ASML Watch analysis
What happened
ASML reported third-quarter sales of €11.7 billion and expects fourth-quarter sales of €14.2 billion to €15.2 billion. For full-year 2026, it forecasts sales of €44 billion to €45 billion. Those figures and the company’s outlook were carried by StorageNewsletter.
ASML chief executive Christophe Fouquet said customers are raising short- and medium-term equipment demand forecasts, primarily because of their expectations for AI investment. Some, he said, are interested in orders for 2029 and 2030. ASML is investigating a further capacity increase for 2028 beyond the 30% increase it had previously communicated for low-NA EUV and DUV immersion capacity.
Why it matters
ASML’s outlook is a useful reality check on the AI build-out: investment plans depend on specialised chipmaking equipment, and the company says supply may not keep pace with demand even after planned expansion. The prospect of orders years ahead also shows how far customers are trying to look beyond the current rush.
Our read
Strong results are welcome, but the more consequential signal is the capacity squeeze. ASML is investigating more supply, not promising it; the difference matters when forecasts start travelling several years into the future. For anyone tracking AI infrastructure, the equipment pipeline deserves a place alongside chip orders and data-centre plans.
What to watch
- Whether ASML commits to extra 2028 capacity, and how much.
- Whether customers turn interest in 2029 and 2030 orders into firm commitments.
- How the company’s sales and margin guidance develops over the next quarter.
Discussion spark: If chipmaking equipment supply cannot keep pace with AI demand, should manufacturers prioritise expanding capacity or be wary of building for forecasts that may not last?
Sources and evidence
- ASML: Fiscal 3Q26 Financial Results – StorageNewsletter (27 October 2026, 13:06 UTC)
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